• VIETFISH INTERNATIONAL - Vol 10, Issue 01(51) | Jan - Feb 2013

    This article, presented by Dr Ragnar Tveteras on Day 1 of the Global Aquaculture Alliance’s GOAL 2012 conference in Bangkok, looks at the supply situation of internationally traded fish species, particularly those imported to the US, Europe and Japan in 2012 and forecasts for 2013. Tveteras is a business economist in the department of industrial economics, risk management and planning of the University of Stavanger.

    Tilapia, salmonids, Pangasius, channel catfish, seabass, seabream, flatfish, cobia and Atlantic cod were among the species investigated.

    Tilapia

    “Tilapia is the motor that’s driving much of the growth in our sample of species,” according to Tveteras. Global tilapia production, which totaled less than 500,000 metric tons in the early 1990s, topped 3.5 million metric tons in 2011. In 2012 it is expected to increase 2.7 percent, and this year it is forecasted to climb 3.4 percent, said Tveteras. By 2014, “we should approach around 3.9 million tons,” he added.

    China is by far the largest producer of tilapia, with a production estimated at 1.3 million MT in 2011, accounting for about 40 percent of the global production. Other main producing countries of farmed tilapia are Egypt (almost 600,000 MT in 2011), and Indonesia (500,000 MT).

    However, production in China dropped slightly in 2012 and is expected to further decline in 2013, while production in both Egypt and Indonesia are expected to grow significantly from 2012 to 2013.

    The US is the world’s single largest importer of tilapia. Its imports of the fish, mostly frozen whole and fillets, have increase rapidly between 1990s and 2000s, peaking 210,000 MT in 2010. Although, there was 11 percent drop in 2011 but the figure started to pick up in the first eight months of 2012.

    The average import price for frozen fillet fish has fluctuated around US$4.5 per kilogram since 2007, after a successive drop from the record USS$6 per kilogram in 1996-1997.

    Salmonids

    Global salmon and trout production are expected to approach 2.5 million MT in 2012. That is a nearly 500,000-metric-ton increase from 2011. But don’t expect a drastic increase again in 2013, said Tveteras. “It is expected to stabilize at that level [nearly 2.5 million tons] in 2013,” he explained.

    Of course, Atlantic salmon represents the bulk of global salmon and trout production. In 2013, global Atlantic salmon production is projected to approach 2 million metric tons. That is up slightly from 2012 and up significantly from pre-2011 levels, when the total fluctuated between 1.4 million and 1.5 million MT.

    Norway is the world’s leading producer of Atlantic salmon, followed by Chile, the United Kingdom and Canada. The farmed Atlantic salmon production in Norway hit one million MT in 2011 and is expected to increase by more than 15 percent in 2012. Similarly, Chile is estimated to grow over 60 percent in 2012 from 200,000 MT in 2011. However, only Chile is expected to increase this year, said Tveteras.

    The EU’s import price of fresh gutted Atlantic salmon from Norway dropped constantly from EUR5 per kilogram in 2010 to below EUR4 in 2012, approaching the record low of EUR3.5 in 2004.

    Global production of coho salmon has soared from 100 thousand MT in 2009 to 140 thousand MT in 2011, owing mainly to the price increase. The growth is estimated to mark 17.3 percent in 2012 but forecasted to slow down to 2.5 percent this year. Real export price of Chilean coho frozen round in 2012 stood at around US$5.5.

    Chile is the primary producer of coho salmon, with about 95 percent of the total global production in 2012. Its production is estimated to increase by 23 percent year on year to almost 160,000 MT in 2012 but expected to level off in 2013.

    Rainbow trout production is estimated to rise by 12 percent in 2012 to over 350,000 MT but is expected to decline again by 8 percent this year due to the decreasing price. According to Tveteras, the real export price of Chilean frozen rainbow trout had plummeted from the decade height of US$6.4 in 2011 to less than US$5 in 2012.

    Chile is also driving the rainbow trout production with total production of over 200,000 MT in 2011, followed by Norway (over 50,000 MT). Chile and Norway experienced an increase of respectively 10 percent and 50 percent in the fish production between 2011 and 2012 but both are expected to decline again in 2013, said Tveteras.

    Pangasius

    The supply situation for Pangasius is not quite as clear as it is for tilapia and Atlantic salmon. However, it is apparent that global Pangasius production is trending downward, said Tveteras. It is expected to drop 13 percent in 2012 and 12 percent this year, compared to 2011, when the total edged 1.4 million MT.

    Viet Nam represents the bulk of global Pangasius production. However, production figures from Viet Nam are difficult to construct, he said. “Here are estimates from two sources — Kontali and an anonymous source — and we see pretty significant discrepancies between those two,” explained Tveteras. According to Kontali data, the Pangasius production of Viet Nam was around 1.1 million MT in 2011 and over 900,000 MT in 2012. Meanwhile, the other source indicates higher figures of respectively 1.4 million MT and 1 million MT. Like the overall trend, Viet Nam’s Pangasius production is projected to be on the downward trend in 2013 and continue the 14 percent drop from 2011 and 2012. The fish real export price was around US$2.7 in 2011.

    India and Indonesia also produce Pangasius but at much smaller production scale. Indian production is estimated at 300,000 MT and that of Indonesia is less than 50,000 MT in 2012. It is seemed both the countries will not experience much growth in the fish output next year.

    Channel catfish

    Global production of channel catfish increased by almost 14 percent in 2012 and is expected to increase further by 7.2 percent, reaching around 450,000 MT in 2013. However the figures is still below the record level in 2007-2008.

    Individually, China and the US are the main producers of channel catfish, together they account for about 97 percent of the total global production. However, channel catfish production in the US has been on a downward trend since the record 300,000 in 2003. By 2011, the US only produced half of the fish volume it used to do in 2013 and continue the 14 percent drop from 2011 and 2012. The fish real export price was around US$2.7 in 2011.

    India and Indonesia also produce Pangasius but at much smaller production scale. Indian production is estimated at 300,000 MT and that of Indonesia is less than 50,000 MT in 2012. It is seemed both the countries will not experience much growth in the fish output next year.

    Channel catfish

    Global production of channel catfish increased by almost 14 percent in 2012 and is expected to increase further by 7.2 percent, reaching around 450,000 MT in 2013. However the figures is still below the record level in 2007-2008.

    Individually, China and the US are the main producers of channel catfish, together they account for about 97 percent of the total global production. However, channel catfish production in the US has been on a downward trend since the record 300,000 in 2003. By 2011, the US only produced half of the fish volume it used to do in 2003. Meanwhile, China’s production is about 200,000 MT in 2011 and has exhibited a growing trend since then.

    Seabass and seabream

    The production of seabass and seabream has been stagnated at less than 300,000 MT over the last five years. However, Tveteras predicted that it would partly pick up in 2012 and 2013. Seabass production is approaching 150,000 MT and its prices have been quite stable at more or less EUR6 per kilogram (2012). Seabream has higher production than bass but posting a dramatic decline in prices, from over EUR5 in 2011 to EUR4.5 in 2012.

    The production of Gilthead seabream and European seabass is dominated by Greece (about 40%) followed by Turkey (25 percent). Spain, Italy and France are other countries having significant production.

    Flatfishes

    The global production of olive flounder was approximately 45,000 MT in 2010 with real farm-gate price of over US$10 per kilogram. The Republic of Korea is responsible for most of the world’s olive flounder output. According to Dr. Sungchul C.Bai’s estimates, Korean olive flounder production is expected to grow at an impressive rate of 22 percent in 2012 and 20 percent this year.

    Due to the absence of estimates from China for the recent years, the global turbot production since 2011 has remained unknown. However, if we look at the countries with available estimates, predominantly European countries, there is a nice growth in turbot production, i.e. 15 percent increase for 2012 and expectedly 12 percent this year.

    Atlantic halibut is a very small species in term of production (less than 4,000 MT) but the price is high (US$10.5 per kilogram) and the volume is increasing at nice rate.

    Barramundi

    Annual barramundi production has increased from several MT in 1986 to 65,000 MT in 2010. However, according to FAO’s data, the fish average price has dropped by more than half since 1990s, fluctuating at around AUD8 between 2008 and 2010. Taiwan, Malaysia Thailand, and Indonesia are the major producers. However, only Taiwan and Indonesia have the estimates for 2011-2013, whereby the production of the former is increasing to approximately 29,000 MT in 2013 while that of the later will stay still 4,000 MT.

    Cobia

    The global production of cobia doubled from less than 20,000 MT in 2003 to almost 40,000 MT in 2010, according to FAO’s data. China accounted for around 94 percent of the total production. Taiwan made up only more or less 5.3 percent of the world’s cobia production and Columbia was nowhere to be seen during that period. However, according to the estimates from Tzyh-Chung Miaw, Diego Ardila, and anonymous source, the cobia output of Taiwan stays unchanged in 2012 and 2013 off this year and next year while that of Colombia will increase.

    Cod

    It is a sad story. Both farmed production and prices of the species have dropped drastically since 2009. It is expected that the global farmed cod production will be around 11,000 MT in 2012 and less than 7,000 MT this year. As a country with almost 90 percent of the global cod production, Norway is the one that drove much of such decline. The country’s farmed cod production is expected to drop by half this year.

    Bluefin tuna

    There is a slight increase last year and this year but the production is still lower than previous years. The US import price for fresh bluefin tuna has increased significantly in recent years and stood at around US$27 in 2011 and 2012.

    Conclusion

    “Our estimates show that the production of selected species should increase from 7.7 million MT in 2011 to 8.1 million MT in 2012 and then barely increase this year,” said Tveteras.

    Tilapia, Atlantic salmon, and Pangasius are the key species that drive the world’s fish production.

    According to Tveteras, there is a strong negative relationship between the production cost change and the production growth. When cost increases, production growth goes down. “Since the aquaculture sector are largely competitive in a sense that price tend to follow production cost, this implies that a reduction in production costs through innovation would be a very important contribution to the production growth,” said Tveteras.

    “I think we have to increase our R&D spending globally. All the stakeholders throughout the supply chain and around it have to become more focus on innovation,” he said.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  By Ragnar Tveteras

    Comments
    VJ (d.v.g.raju)
    24/05/2013 15:39 (GMT+7)
    we are strarting vanamei cutture in India .please send details for culture





    thank you

    VJ
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